AREFS - 98
Category Impact assessment
Publisher  Russian Academy of Sciences 
Platform DOS, Win3x, Win95/98, WinNT
Status Commercial
Description The Automated Regional Ecological Forecast System (AREFS) is intended for the estimation of agroecological system dynamics at a regional scale (50-5000 km2 area range). It comprises a set of simulation models of all basic regional ecosystem components (soil cover, vegetation, ground water deposits and quality, relief characteristics, atmospheric circulation, pollutants accumulation and migration). It is a complex finite state model; the dynamics of an agroecological system are represented as a transition between pre-defined functional states. Each component of an agroecosystem is identified by a polynomial aggregated index, characterising it's participation in the whole systems functioning. The dynamics of a system are estimated using a recursive discrete algorithm: determination of aggregated indexes involving: recognition of system state: appraisal of external influence: assessment of system state change: subsequent recognition of system state. The simulation step is one year. Using aggregated indexes instead of direct values greatly improves the model performance and significantly simplifies the forecasting process. The AREFS model was certified and recommended by the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of the Russian Federation. It has been successfully used for the estimation of consequences caused by the Chernobyl nuclear incident; development of Land Use Program for Central Chernozem region of Russia and in a number of international projects.
Cost US Dollars 150
Data formats supported None stated
Supplier in Russian Federation  Russian Academy of Sciences 

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